March Madness: Non-Basketball Edition
The monthly Fed/CPI/Employment headline-market movement industrial complex was rudely shouldered aside in the last week by a much bigger and faster-moving story.
March Market Commentary: Why Aren't Rate Hikes Working?
If there’s an aphorism for February that you could embroider on a pillow, it would be, “The more things change, the more they remain the same.” Markets appear to have finally started taking Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s warnings seriously and caught up to the rhetoric that the Fed has been consistently pushing out. Ra
February Market Commentary: Powell's Not Done
The market adage is “as January goes, so goes the year.” Is it true? According to an analysis by Fidelity, January returns are positive about 75% of the time the full year turns out positive.
Recession, Recovery, or Both?
The markets are starting to feel like Groundhog Day. Almost every month, it’s a cadence of employment numbers, CPI, Fed — market reacts.
January Market Commentary: The Fed Goes Meta
While the equity markets, as measured by the S&P 500 index, was up in the third quarter, December was a disappointment from the gains seen in October and November.
December Market Commentary: The Predictive Limits of Data
We’re on the home stretch of a year in which “unprecedented” doesn’t even begin to capture it. Nothing went according to plan, for anyone, from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to the Fed’s domestic attempts to combat inflation.
November Market Commentary: Powell Threads the Needle?
Economic data showed some movements in the right directions, both up and down. The Federal Reserve responded by talking about letting the economy catch up to the rate increases already enacted. Does that mean that the path forward will be smoother and potentially skirt a recession?
Fed Officials: Wait, Did We Say Soft Landing?
The Fed raised the key short-term interest rate by another 75 basis points at the September FOMC meeting, but the big news wasn’t the well-anticipated rate increase. It was Chairman Powell’s remarks at the press conference.
September 2022 Commentary: If the Fed is Having a Goldilocks Moment, is the Economy Baby Bear?
After the bear market rally in July was extended for the first few weeks of August, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell used the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium to clarify the Fed’s position on future rate increases. Powell was clear that there would be no “Fed Pivot” until improvements in the inflation rate are sustained.
June 2022 Commentary: Lions, Tigers & Bears, Oh My
In reference to the Wizard of Oz, the Fed lion has found the courage to increase interest rates drastically, the inflation tiger is still ambushing the economy, and now the stock market is flirting with bears. The question for investors is: Are we still deep in the forest? Or is that the Emerald City on the horizon? To extend the metaphor – that wizard wasn’t much help, and the solution to the problem turned out to be a liquidation.
July 2022 Commentary: Will the Fed's Rate Resolve Lead to Recession?
After a barely positive May, June saw the bear market return across indices. We ended up with the worst first half performance since 1970. A mid-month surprise 75 basis point rate hike at the June FOMC meeting, followed by Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony to Congress in which he indicated aggressive rate increases at the July and September meetings, convinced markets that inflation is the priority for the Fed.
August 2022 Commentary: Will a Month of Fresh Data Change the Fed's Aggressive Stance?
July marked the best month for the markets since November 2020.What happened, after the rout of the first half?