Investing

Treasury rates have surged to their highest levels in recent years due to a combination of concerns around inflation, oil prices, the national debt, and the Fed. The 10-year Treasury yield is once again above 4.6% and the 30-year has been above 5% for the longest streak since 2007.

In our modern world, computers and cell phones have become everyday necessities that are expected to simply work. Yet, there is unbelievable complexity behind not only the engineering that makes them possible, but also in the supply chains that allow millions of devices to be manufactured.

The baseball player Yogi Berra once said that “a nickel ain’t worth a dime anymore.” With inflation still elevated, many investors and consumers may be feeling this way as well. Not only are everyday costs higher due to energy prices, but short-term interest rates have fallen over the past two years.

There is a saying that smooth seas do not make skillful sailors. When it comes to investing, at no time has this been more true than during the first half of the year. Investors faced major events including the war in Iran, oil prices pushing inflation to multi-year highs, and questions around artificial intelligence (AI).

The U.S. and Iran announced a preliminary agreement intended to end the four-month conflict that has weighed on the global economy. Financial markets have reacted positively to this development, with the stock market climbing, oil prices falling, and interest rates declining.

May was a strong month for investors, with major indices reaching new all-time highs, even as the bond market faced challenges from inflation concerns. The S&P 500 climbed above 7,500 for the first time, supported by continued strength in technology stocks.

The S&P 500 recently surpassed 7,500 for the first time, marking another milestone in a year that has seen many new all-time highs. This is positive for investors, especially because several sectors have contributed to this rally.

For much of the history of the stock market, investing was primarily about individual stocks and bonds. Over the past few decades, however, macroeconomic developments have increasingly influenced markets.

The human brain is excellent at finding patterns, a skill that has evolved to help us across many parts of life. However, it can also lead us astray when there is no real pattern at all, such as when we see shapes in clouds and ink blots.

It has now been more than three-and-a-half years since the bull market began in October 2022. At that time, inflation was rising at its fastest pace in fifty years, the Fed was hiking interest rates, and ChatGPT was still a month away from being released to the public.

Global events have been at the center of financial market activity, with high oil prices, geopolitics, and new tariff rules capturing investor attention. Behind many of these trends, however, is the level of the U.S. dollar.

For most Americans, the price of gasoline at the pump is one of the direct ways the conflict in Iran affects their everyday lives. Gasoline prices are prominently displayed and updated frequently, and filling up on at least a weekly basis is a basic necessity to commute to work, school, buy groceries, and more.