Investing

The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions remain a focal point for markets. While the timing and size of rate cuts are the subject of debate, why the central bank is cutting rates and how the full rate cut cycle might play out are far more important.

With less than two months until the presidential election, the policy platforms for President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are gradually forming. Through speeches and debates, each candidate is laying out what they stand for and how they would change existing policies.

As everyone settles into their post-Labor Day routines, it’s a good time for investors to reflect on markets and review their financial plans for the rest of the year.

As we enter the second half of the year, it’s important for long-term investors to maintain perspective on the major events that have driven markets.

As with many things in life, knowing what we’re supposed to do and actually doing it are two separate things. This is true for our health, relationships, careers, and of course, our finances.

In times of market uncertainty, investors often seek the safety of cash. This has been true over the past several years as markets have swung due to the pandemic, geopolitical events, Fed rate hikes, inflation, gridlock in Washington, technology trends, and more.

2024 began with debates over a “soft” versus “hard” landing as the Fed attempted to stabilize the economy as well as over the sustainability of last year’s market rally. Only three months later, those concerns have given way to a calmer environment centered around fading inflation and the Fed’s plans for reducing interest rates.

The stock market continues to reach new heights, driven by a stronger-than-expected economy and the largest technology stocks. In particular, Nvidia, a maker of graphics chips used in artificial intelligence applications, recently helped to push markets higher after it beat Wall Street earnings expectations.

The S&P 500 index recently closed above 5,000 and set a new all-time high, less than three years after it first crossed the 4,000 mark. While some are understandably nervous any time the market is near record levels, investors also tend to grow more bullish as the momentum continues.

The S&P 500 has reached a new all-time high, coming full circle in just two years, despite growing uncertainty around the economy, the path of Fed rate cuts, and rising interest rates. Outside of traditional asset classes, Bitcoin also reached its highest level in two years recently following last year's run up.

The battle over the federal budget in Washington is adding to political uncertainty at a time when investors are already nervous about the economy and financial markets.

While investing often involves recognizing patterns in economic and market data, not all patterns are equally useful or valid. On the one hand, history shows that economic trends such as the business cycle and factors that drive corporate profitability, for instance, do impact markets.