Insights

President Dwight Eisenhower is often quoted as saying “what is important is seldom urgent and what is urgent is seldom important.” This perfectly captures the challenges many investors face, since it often feels as if every breaking market and economic development is urgent and requires immediate action.

On the surface, the first half of 2025 has been challenging for investors. From a trade war and market correction to an escalating Middle East conflict and concerns over the growing national debt, investors may feel as if financial markets are stumbling from one problem to the next.

The conflict between Israel and Iran has captured global attention and created uncertainty in financial markets. Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and military targets began on June 13 and quickly led to retaliatory attacks. Then, on June 21, the U.S. launched strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities.

For many Americans, the status of the U.S. dollar reflects the country’s position in the world. However, the dollar has weakened in recent months amid trade and economic uncertainty, declining against a basket of major currencies to its lowest level in three years.

Financial markets rebounded in May with the S&P 500 recovering its year-to-date losses. This positive month occurred against a backdrop of new trade agreements, mixed economic signals, and ongoing concerns about U.S. fiscal health.

Moody's recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating marks an official end to the country’s top-tier debt status. Following Fitch's downgrade in 2023 and Standard & Poor's move in 2011, Moody's decision to lower the rating from Aaa to Aa1 underscores growing concerns about the nation's fiscal trajectory.

The recent trade announcement between the U.S. and China reverses many of the tariffs that rattled financial markets beginning in April. This agreement, which lasts 90 days, lowers U.S. tariff rates on China from 145% to 30%, and China’s rates on U.S. goods to 10%.

A key principle of investing is that patience, discipline, and maintaining a long-term perspective are what drive financial success. Perhaps no investor has captured this wisdom as eloquently as Warren Buffett over his five-decade career as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.

April was one of the most volatile months in history as markets reacted to new tariff announcements. However, even though the S&P 500 fell as much as 12% during the month, the index rebounded and closed within one percent of where it started.

The financial health of consumers is an important indicator of the broader economy. Consumer spending represents about 70% of all spending across the economy, and steady purchases are one reason economic growth has exceeded expectations over the past few years.

Just like in the stock market, greater uncertainty has led to swings in the bond market. These moves, driven by tariffs and a dispute between the White House and the Fed, have pushed interest rates and bond yields higher.

Trade tensions between the United States and China have escalated in recent weeks, with both countries implementing unprecedented tariff increases. For the moment, the U.S. has raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, while China has countered with 125% tariffs on American products.

Concerns that a trade war will lead to a recession have spread around the globe. The possibility of retaliatory tariffs is on investors’ minds, with China responding with counter-tariffs, increasing the odds of a worst-case trade war scenario.

On April 2, President Trump announced new tariffs on nearly all major trading partners. These tariffs are “reciprocal” in that they correspond to tariffs each country imposes on U.S. goods and are on top of previously announced duties. The average tariff rate across countries is 25%, with rates for some as high as 49%.

With the stock market back near correction territory due to tariff concerns, some investors may feel as if the market is stuck in a “Groundhog Day” loop. Fears of a trade war have kept markets choppy all year, with the technology sector leading the downturn.

Federal Reserve policy has been a key driver of markets over the past few years. It’s not surprising to investors that changes in policy direction have resulted in market swings, most notably in 2022 when the Fed began to hike rates, and again last year when investors anticipated Fed rate cuts.

Concerns over the economy have intensified, leading to a challenging investment environment. The S&P 500 briefly fell into correction territory recently (a decline of 10% or more), while the Nasdaq and major technology stocks have led the downturn.

When it comes to financial planning, it's important to recognize what we can and cannot control. We can control our own behavior, make thoughtful financial plans, and adjust our strategies as needed. However, we don't control the economic cycle, market movements, or policy decisions that impact the broader financial landscape.

The stock market has stumbled with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declining year-to-date.1 While tariffs have garnered the most attention, investors are also concerned about mixed economic signals including weak consumer confidence, hotter inflation, government worker layoffs, and more.

Trade headlines continue to weigh on markets as new tariffs go into effect. President Trump recently confirmed tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, dashing hopes of more extensions or last-minute deals.

February was a volatile month for stocks. Tech continued the selloff that started in late December, with the Magnificent 7 falling 8.1% in the month. Tariffs and inflation fueled worries about growth as the new Trump administration began implementing policy changes.

Recent market swings have highlighted a gap between how investors feel and how markets have performed. As the famous Warren Buffett quote suggests, it has often been wise to be "fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”

Investor concerns over the recent underperformance of technology stocks have raised questions about the broader stock market. While strong returns among artificial intelligence stocks have supported portfolios over the past few years, they have also raised questions about the sustainability of the market rally.

Albert Einstein reportedly once told his accountant, "the hardest thing in the world to understand is income taxes." This observation from the Nobel Prize-winning physicist remains relevant today, as our tax system has only grown more complex in the decades since.

Investors have faced several market concerns early in the year around tech stocks, interest rates, and government policy. Among these factors, it’s no surprise that trade policy has emerged as particularly significant for markets.

January marked a positive but volatile start to the year for investors amid market shifts and policy concerns. President Trump returned to the White House and signed dozens of executive orders, the Chinese artificial intelligence company DeepSeek shook the tech industry, and the Fed hit pause on rate cuts.

Interest rates are fluctuating as investors adjust their expectations around economic growth, Federal Reserve rate moves, and the Trump administration’s policies. The 10-year Treasury yield had risen as high as 4.8% in recent weeks before settling below 4.6%.

President Trump’s inauguration marks a significant political shift amid market and economic uncertainty. The stock market had rallied as much as 5.3% with dividends in the month following the November election, before giving up about half of those gains at the start of the year.

The stock market has struggled in recent weeks as concerns have grown around interest rates, market valuations, the direction of the economy, and more. Since the market peak on December 6 last year, the S&P 500 has pulled back 4.3% while the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed from 4.15% to 4.76%.

The start of the year is the perfect time to prioritize both personal and financial well-being. While physical health often takes center stage in New Year’s resolutions, financial fitness deserves equal attention. This is especially true after two years of strong market returns and changing economic conditions.

2024 was a year of unexpectedly strong market performance. Major stock market indices generated historic gains with the S&P 500 returning 25.0% with dividends, the Nasdaq 29.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 15.0%. This occurred despite concerns around inflation, recessions, Fed policy, and the presidential election.

When it comes to managing our investments, we can be our own worst enemies. Behavioral finance research has revealed how emotional and cognitive biases can lead investors to make financial decisions that harm rather than benefit them.

The 19th century author Balzac wrote that “our worst misfortunes never happen, and most miseries lie in anticipation.”

After a historic year, investors have much to be thankful for this holiday season. Despite periods of uncertainty around the Federal Reserve, the presidential election, and geopolitical conflicts, the stock market has delivered exceptional returns in 2024.

The national debt is quickly approaching $36 trillion, according to the U.S. Treasury, a fact that has fueled concerns among investors and economists. This means that the federal debt has nearly quadrupled since before the 2008 global financial crisis, and has grown every year since 2001.

While the political world will focus on the election for some time, financial markets have already shifted their attention to the next administration’s policies, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the underlying economy.

An important yet counterintuitive issue for investors is that long-term interest rates have risen in recent weeks despite the Fed’s latest cuts. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, for instance, has jumped from a low of 3.62% to as high as 4.38%.

With just days to go until the presidential election on November 5, polls suggest it will be a close race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Both candidates are campaigning hard in swing states, and investors may be worried about how either outcome might affect their portfolios.

For those in or approaching retirement age, there is nothing more important than building a portfolio that can support a long, fulfilling retirement. Given the difficult inflationary conditions of the past few years, the risk that worries most retirees continues to be outliving their savings.

Although markets have performed well this year, some investors may be nervous about upcoming events such as the presidential election, the Fed’s next rate decision, and the state of the economy.

Oil prices play an important role in the global economy, directly influencing the cost of gasoline at the pump and indirectly impacting the prices of all goods and services. The price of oil has also been an important factor influencing global markets and inflation trends over the past few years.

As we begin the final quarter of the year, financial markets and the economy have defied the expectations of many investors. Rather than falling into recession, the economy has grown steadily, albeit at a slower pace, and inflation rates have fallen toward the Fed’s target.

The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has escalated in recent days, raising the risk of a full-scale war and marking another chapter in Middle East instability.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions remain a focal point for markets. While the timing and size of rate cuts are the subject of debate, why the central bank is cutting rates and how the full rate cut cycle might play out are far more important.

With less than two months until the presidential election, the policy platforms for President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are gradually forming. Through speeches and debates, each candidate is laying out what they stand for and how they would change existing policies.

As everyone settles into their post-Labor Day routines, it’s a good time for investors to reflect on markets and review their financial plans for the rest of the year.

Financial markets have been resilient in recent weeks, almost fully recovering from the swings experienced at the beginning of August. Major stock market indices are once again approaching all-time highs, with the S&P 500 gaining 19.2% year-to-date with dividends, less than half of one percent below its peak.

With the presidential election just two and a half months away, the candidates’ economic policy platforms are only now beginning to take shape. This late unveiling has some investors concerned about how each policy platform might impact the economy and financial markets.

Financial markets have felt more fragile recently with investors concerned about the economy, the possibility that the Fed may be behind on cutting rates, and some disappointing tech earnings. Ironically, despite the market volatility last week, major indices were mostly unchanged from Monday to Friday.

Stocks have experienced a sharp pullback due to concerns over the timing of Fed rate cuts, a weakening labor market, and disappointing tech earnings. It's important for investors to stay level-headed.

As the summer heats up, the stock market is experiencing its own heat wave in the form of rising volatility. Market uncertainty has climbed as investors rotate out of large cap technology stocks and into a broader array of sectors and styles, including small caps.

From President Biden’s announcement that he will not be seeking re-election, to a rotation out of tech stocks and into small caps, recent events have added to market uncertainty. The S&P 500 recently declined 2.9% from its all-time high, while the Nasdaq pulled back nearly 5%.

The stock market has continued its historic rally with the S&P 500 gaining 19% year-to-date with reinvested dividends, contributing to a total return of 61% since the market bottom in 2022.

As we enter the second half of the year, it’s important for long-term investors to maintain perspective on the major events that have driven markets.

As the presidential debate season kicks off, the current and former presidents’ divergent approaches to taxes will be on display. Naturally, this is a controversial topic fueled by strong political views on our nation’s priorities, government spending, entitlement programs, fairness around taxation, and much more.

The path of interest rates has been highly uncertain over the past few years due to inflation, economic growth, and the Fed. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, for instance, jumped from 3.8% at the end of last year to a high of 4.7% in April, before settling around 4.2% more recently.

As with many things in life, knowing what we’re supposed to do and actually doing it are two separate things. This is true for our health, relationships, careers, and of course, our finances.

Investors and the financial media tend to focus on macroeconomic concerns such as inflation, labor markets, and the Fed. While these topics are important, history shows that the economy and markets grow over long periods of time due to technological innovation and gains in productivity.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached 40,000 for the first time recently as markets continue to rebound from a 5% decline earlier this year.

With markets nervous about stubborn inflation, a gradually slowing labor market, and the timing of the first Fed rate cut, investors are more focused on this corporate earnings season than usual. This is because while the economy has avoided a “hard landing” corporate earnings only began to rebound in the second half of 2023.

In times of market uncertainty, investors often seek the safety of cash. This has been true over the past several years as markets have swung due to the pandemic, geopolitical events, Fed rate hikes, inflation, gridlock in Washington, technology trends, and more.

For many households, college decisions are a cause for celebration. However, college also represents one of the largest expenses and sources of financial stress in our lives, on par with retirement or buying a home.

The stock market has become increasingly jittery with the S&P 500 experiencing its first 5% pullback of the year. The possibility the Fed could delay its first rate cut, declines in technology and artificial intelligence stocks, and tensions in the Middle East have all contributed to the market swoon.

2024 began with debates over a “soft” versus “hard” landing as the Fed attempted to stabilize the economy as well as over the sustainability of last year’s market rally. Only three months later, those concerns have given way to a calmer environment centered around fading inflation and the Fed’s plans for reducing interest rates.

With major stock market indices hovering around all-time highs, some investors continue to worry about the state of the economy. While trends around inflation and jobs have been positive, putting the Fed in a position to cut rates later this year, there are still many concerns in areas such as real estate.

Markets continue to be driven by artificial intelligence stocks and the timing of the Fed's first rate cut. Beyond the day-to-day swings, these drivers reflect important trends in innovation, productivity, and the health of the economy.

With the presidential election season heating up, there will no doubt be a flurry of daily headlines between now and election day on November 5.

The stock market continues to reach new heights, driven by a stronger-than-expected economy and the largest technology stocks. In particular, Nvidia, a maker of graphics chips used in artificial intelligence applications, recently helped to push markets higher after it beat Wall Street earnings expectations.

Consumer spending is the backbone of the U.S. economy, constituting over two-thirds of our nearly $28 trillion GDP. When consumers spend money on everyday goods and services, and make large one-time purchases, it not only helps to spur economic growth but is also a reflection of economic trends.

The S&P 500 index recently closed above 5,000 and set a new all-time high, less than three years after it first crossed the 4,000 mark. While some are understandably nervous any time the market is near record levels, investors also tend to grow more bullish as the momentum continues.

When it comes to markets, day-to-day price swings are often more about what investors expect than the underlying facts. This is because markets are designed to anticipate future events and assign them a price today.

The author Fyodor Dostoevsky once wrote that “man only likes to count his troubles; he doesn’t calculate his happiness.” The idea that the glass is always half empty perfectly captures how many investors feel about the economy and financial markets, especially over the past few years.

The S&P 500 has reached a new all-time high, coming full circle in just two years, despite growing uncertainty around the economy, the path of Fed rate cuts, and rising interest rates. Outside of traditional asset classes, Bitcoin also reached its highest level in two years recently following last year's run up.

The battle over the federal budget in Washington is adding to political uncertainty at a time when investors are already nervous about the economy and financial markets.

Stock and bond markets struggled during the first trading week of 2024 as investors questioned the probability of a "soft landing" and what it may mean for the timing and size of Fed rate cuts later this year.

2023 marked an inflection point for markets with strong gains across both stocks and bonds. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq generated exceptional returns of 26.3%, 16.2%, and 44.7% with reinvested dividends last year, respectively.

The bond market has had a better year in 2023 despite ongoing swings in interest rates. The U.S. Aggregate bond index has rebounded 2.7% year-to-date after briefly hovering in the red a few months ago.

While investing often involves recognizing patterns in economic and market data, not all patterns are equally useful or valid. On the one hand, history shows that economic trends such as the business cycle and factors that drive corporate profitability, for instance, do impact markets.

The stock market has been supported by a healthier-than-expected economy this year, generating returns that have helped many portfolios to partially recover from last year's bear market.

While it may not feel like it, investors truly do have much to be thankful for this holiday season.

While the holiday season is ideally a time for family and friends, it is also the best time to review tax strategies for the coming year. Tax planning includes topics such as tax-loss harvesting, choices of investment vehicles, optimizing the order of withdrawals, and many others.

There's a common saying among investors that markets take the stairs up and the elevator down. This is because the long-term trends that drive markets higher tend to be slow moving and compound over time, whereas the events that create short-term panic tend to be sudden and unexpected.

The author F. Scott Fitzgerald once wrote that "the test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function." This concept, often referred to as "cognitive dissonance," is something all investors must grapple with on a regular basis.

While war escalates in the Middle East, a political battle is also heating up in Washington. As of this writing, there is still no House speaker in Congress after Kevin McCarthy's exit and Steve Scalise's withdrawal over the past two weeks.

At its September meeting, the Federal Open Markets Committee kept rates unchanged with a target range of 5.25% to 5.50%, in a decision that was widely anticipated by investors. Still, markets responded negatively with bond yields jumping to levels not seen since 2007...

For patient investors with time horizons of years and decades, the primary drivers of portfolio returns are not day-to-day market fluctuations but the business cycle and other longer-term trends...

For long-term investors, knowing the difference between what can and cannot be controlled is the key to both financial success and peace of mind. While all investors would like to believe they can predict or even control the direction of the market, experience teaches us that this is difficult to do.

Financial markets have pulled back in recent weeks due to factors such as rising interest rates and uncertainty in China. So far in August, the S&P 500 has declined 4.8% while the Nasdaq, which consists primarily of technology stocks, has fallen 7.4%.

While 2023 has been a better year for bonds after last year's bear market, rising interest rates over the past three months have acted as a headwind. The U.S. Aggregate bond index has gained 0.6% this year, down from a peak return of 4.2% in April.

We are delighted to share some exciting news today - we would like to introduce the newest member of our team, Kendall Seifert!

Despite the economic uncertainty of the past year, everyday individuals and households have been resilient. Consumer spending has remained steady in the face of high inflation, rising interest rates, housing market challenges, and layoffs in sectors such as tech.

At its June meeting, the Fed decided to hit pause on rate hikes after more than a year of rapid monetary policy tightening. Since last March, the Fed has raised rates 10 times from zero to 5%, making this the second-fastest rate hike cycle in history.

Market and economic expectations have shifted 180 degrees since the start of the year when many investors expected a recession and prolonged bear market.

Investors have grappled with market and economic challenges this year ranging from Fed uncertainty, stubbornly high inflation, the possibility of a recession, a banking crisis, the debt ceiling, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and more.

As the debt ceiling drama in Washington unfolds, uncertainty around the Fed grows, and inflation remains stubbornly high, the price of gold has experienced a surge over the past six months. How is gold affected by recent events and what role can it play in a well-diversified portfolio?

Managing and wrapping your head around health care costs and health insurance may seem like a daunting task. A financial wellness study by PricewaterhouseCoopers found that over one-third of baby boomers-38% to be exact-said that the cost of health care is their top fear.

The right estate strategy gives your loved ones a meticulously detailed picture of your intentions. All the while, paying Uncle Sam as little as possible. We realize it’s easy to put this off. It doesn’t feel urgent.

Planning for retirement has never been more important and yet so challenging. Given the difficult inflationary conditions of the past two years, the risk that worries most retirees continues to be outliving their savings.

Imagine there are 100 miles between you and a goal. A place you want to get to. But the land in between is chock full of canyons, crevasses, and crumbling cliffs. You have two choices of how you could get there.

What’s more important: What you do or what you don’t do? It’s a philosophical question, isn’t it? Let’s think about it in terms of your retirement — especially right now.