Insights
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5 Insights on the Fed, Election, and Volatility in Q4
As we begin the final quarter of the year, financial markets and the economy have defied the expectations of many investors. Rather than falling into recession, the economy has grown steadily, albeit at a slower pace, and inflation rates have fallen toward the Fed’s target.
How Tax Proposals and the Election Impact Investors
With less than two months until the presidential election, the policy platforms for President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are gradually forming. Through speeches and debates, each candidate is laying out what they stand for and how they would change existing policies.
How Corporate Earnings Support the Market Rebound
Financial markets have been resilient in recent weeks, almost fully recovering from the swings experienced at the beginning of August. Major stock market indices are once again approaching all-time highs, with the S&P 500 gaining 19.2% year-to-date with dividends, less than half of one percent below its peak.
How Presidential Elections and Economic Policy Impact Investors
With the presidential election just two and a half months away, the candidates’ economic policy platforms are only now beginning to take shape. This late unveiling has some investors concerned about how each policy platform might impact the economy and financial markets.
How Carry Trades and Market Fragility Impact Investors
Financial markets have felt more fragile recently with investors concerned about the economy, the possibility that the Fed may be behind on cutting rates, and some disappointing tech earnings. Ironically, despite the market volatility last week, major indices were mostly unchanged from Monday to Friday.
What the Summer Market Rotation Means for Investors
As the summer heats up, the stock market is experiencing its own heat wave in the form of rising volatility. Market uncertainty has climbed as investors rotate out of large cap technology stocks and into a broader array of sectors and styles, including small caps.
How to Invest for Retirement Amid Market Uncertainty
From President Biden’s announcement that he will not be seeking re-election, to a rotation out of tech stocks and into small caps, recent events have added to market uncertainty. The S&P 500 recently declined 2.9% from its all-time high, while the Nasdaq pulled back nearly 5%.
How Corporate Taxes Could Impact Markets This Election Season
As the presidential debate season kicks off, the current and former presidents’ divergent approaches to taxes will be on display. Naturally, this is a controversial topic fueled by strong political views on our nation’s priorities, government spending, entitlement programs, fairness around taxation, and much more.
What the Fed’s Outlook Means for the Bond Market
The path of interest rates has been highly uncertain over the past few years due to inflation, economic growth, and the Fed. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, for instance, jumped from 3.8% at the end of last year to a high of 4.7% in April, before settling around 4.2% more recently.
How Technological Innovations Impact the Stock Market
Investors and the financial media tend to focus on macroeconomic concerns such as inflation, labor markets, and the Fed. While these topics are important, history shows that the economy and markets grow over long periods of time due to technological innovation and gains in productivity.
How Earnings Can Guide Investors in Difficult Markets
With markets nervous about stubborn inflation, a gradually slowing labor market, and the timing of the first Fed rate cut, investors are more focused on this corporate earnings season than usual. This is because while the economy has avoided a “hard landing” corporate earnings only began to rebound in the second half of 2023.
Why Cash Is Not a Long-Term Investment
In times of market uncertainty, investors often seek the safety of cash. This has been true over the past several years as markets have swung due to the pandemic, geopolitical events, Fed rate hikes, inflation, gridlock in Washington, technology trends, and more.
How Oil Prices Impact Inflation, the Fed and Markets
The stock market has become increasingly jittery with the S&P 500 experiencing its first 5% pullback of the year. The possibility the Fed could delay its first rate cut, declines in technology and artificial intelligence stocks, and tensions in the Middle East have all contributed to the market swoon.
3 Market Insights for Investors in Q2 2024
2024 began with debates over a “soft” versus “hard” landing as the Fed attempted to stabilize the economy as well as over the sustainability of last year’s market rally. Only three months later, those concerns have given way to a calmer environment centered around fading inflation and the Fed’s plans for reducing interest rates.
How Residential and Commercial Real Estate Impact Markets
With major stock market indices hovering around all-time highs, some investors continue to worry about the state of the economy. While trends around inflation and jobs have been positive, putting the Fed in a position to cut rates later this year, there are still many concerns in areas such as real estate.
What Fed Rate Cuts and Disinflation Mean for Long-Term Investors
Markets continue to be driven by artificial intelligence stocks and the timing of the Fed's first rate cut. Beyond the day-to-day swings, these drivers reflect important trends in innovation, productivity, and the health of the economy.
Perspective on the Magnificent 7 and Valuations
The stock market continues to reach new heights, driven by a stronger-than-expected economy and the largest technology stocks. In particular, Nvidia, a maker of graphics chips used in artificial intelligence applications, recently helped to push markets higher after it beat Wall Street earnings expectations.
How Consumer Spending Supports the Economy and Markets
Consumer spending is the backbone of the U.S. economy, constituting over two-thirds of our nearly $28 trillion GDP. When consumers spend money on everyday goods and services, and make large one-time purchases, it not only helps to spur economic growth but is also a reflection of economic trends.
How Loss Aversion and the Sequence of Returns Impact Investors
The S&P 500 index recently closed above 5,000 and set a new all-time high, less than three years after it first crossed the 4,000 mark. While some are understandably nervous any time the market is near record levels, investors also tend to grow more bullish as the momentum continues.
What History Says About Markets Reaching All-Time Highs
The author Fyodor Dostoevsky once wrote that “man only likes to count his troubles; he doesn’t calculate his happiness.” The idea that the glass is always half empty perfectly captures how many investors feel about the economy and financial markets, especially over the past few years.
What the SEC's Bitcoin ETF Approval Means for Investors
The S&P 500 has reached a new all-time high, coming full circle in just two years, despite growing uncertainty around the economy, the path of Fed rate cuts, and rising interest rates. Outside of traditional asset classes, Bitcoin also reached its highest level in two years recently following last year's run up.
What Seasonal Patterns such as the January Effect Mean for Investors
While investing often involves recognizing patterns in economic and market data, not all patterns are equally useful or valid. On the one hand, history shows that economic trends such as the business cycle and factors that drive corporate profitability, for instance, do impact markets.
How Inflation Impacts Taxes and Retirement Benefits
While the holiday season is ideally a time for family and friends, it is also the best time to review tax strategies for the coming year. Tax planning includes topics such as tax-loss harvesting, choices of investment vehicles, optimizing the order of withdrawals, and many others.
What a Goldilocks Jobs Report Means for the Fed and Investors
There's a common saying among investors that markets take the stairs up and the elevator down. This is because the long-term trends that drive markets higher tend to be slow moving and compound over time, whereas the events that create short-term panic tend to be sudden and unexpected.
What the Market Correction Means for Long-Term Investors
The author F. Scott Fitzgerald once wrote that "the test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to
hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function." This
concept, often referred to as "cognitive dissonance," is something all investors must grapple with
on a regular basis.
What Washington Politics and the National Debt Mean for Long-Term Investors
While war escalates in the Middle East, a political battle is also heating up in Washington. As of this writing, there is still no House speaker in Congress after Kevin McCarthy's exit and Steve Scalise's withdrawal over the past two weeks.
What the Fed's Latest Projections Mean for Long-Term Investors
At its September meeting, the Federal Open Markets Committee kept rates unchanged with a target range of 5.25% to 5.50%, in a decision that was widely anticipated by investors. Still, markets responded negatively with bond yields jumping to levels not seen since 2007...
Why Investing Early Is the Key to Achieving Financial Goals
For long-term investors, knowing the difference between what can and cannot be controlled is the key to both financial success and peace of mind. While all investors would like to believe they can predict or even control the direction of the market, experience teaches us that this is difficult to do.
Why Investors Need Perspective Amid a Market Pullback, Fears Over China, and More
Financial markets have pulled back in recent weeks due to factors such as rising interest rates and uncertainty in China. So far in August, the S&P 500 has declined 4.8% while the Nasdaq, which consists primarily of technology stocks, has fallen 7.4%.
Why Bonds Are Still Essential for Diversified Portfolios
While 2023 has been a better year for bonds after last year's bear market, rising interest rates over the past three months have acted as a headwind. The U.S. Aggregate bond index has gained 0.6% this year, down from a peak return of 4.2% in April.
How Personal Savings Affect the Economy
Despite the economic uncertainty of the past year, everyday individuals and households have been resilient. Consumer spending has remained steady in the face of high inflation, rising interest rates, housing market challenges, and layoffs in sectors such as tech.
What the Fed's Hawkish Pause Means for Long-Term Investors
At its June meeting, the Fed decided to hit pause on rate hikes after more than a year of rapid monetary policy tightening. Since last March, the Fed has raised rates 10 times from zero to 5%, making this the second-fastest rate hike cycle in history.
Gold fever? Let's evaluate its glitter
As the debt ceiling drama in Washington unfolds, uncertainty around the Fed grows, and inflation remains stubbornly high, the price of gold has experienced a surge over the past six months. How is gold affected by recent events and what role can it play in a well-diversified portfolio?
Get The Right Medicare Plan For Your Needs.
Managing and wrapping your head around health care costs and health insurance may seem like a daunting task. A financial wellness study by PricewaterhouseCoopers found that over one-third of baby boomers-38% to be exact-said that the cost of health care is their top fear.
How Challenges in Commercial Real Estate Impact Investors
The repercussions of inflation, Fed rate hikes, the ongoing banking crisis, and the approaching debt ceiling deadline are being felt throughout the financial system. One area directly impacted by these shocks is real estate, across both the residential and commercial sectors.
How the Failure of First Republic Impacts the Financial System
On the morning of May 1, it was announced that First Republic Bank had been taken over by the FDIC and sold to JPMorgan Chase. With ongoing banking turmoil creating market and economic uncertainty, how can long-term investors navigate the months ahead?
The SECURE 2.0 Act Has Created Some Retirement Planning Opportunities: RMD Edition
The SECURE 2.0 Act of 2022 makes it easier to accumulate retirement savings at every stage of the financial journey. But the Act also took steps to potentially enhance retirement savings for those close to or in retirement.
Managing Your Stock Options During a Transition
Employee stock options have increasingly become a piece of total compensation over the last few years, particularly for people employed in high-growth industries such as technology-related sectors. But what happens if a slowing growth picture results in your firm downsizing?
Inflation Has Tax Impacts, Too
Inflation has been making every area of our lives more expensive as the costs of the goods and services we use every day have skyrocketed. The Federal Reserve is attempting to lower inflation by using the bluntest tool in its arsenal – raising the key short-term interest rate.
November Market Commentary: Powell Threads the Needle?
Economic data showed some movements in the right directions, both up and down. The Federal Reserve responded by talking about letting the economy catch up to the rate increases already enacted. Does that mean that the path forward will be smoother and potentially skirt a recession?
Social Security Benefits Are Increasing. How Will It Affect Your Taxes?
Inflation has been hitting everyone’s wallets all year long. With the cost of everything from fuel to pasta going up, a 40-year high in the cost-of-living-adjustment (COLA) for social security sounds like a good thing. But is that all there is to it?
Keeping Your Balance: Lowering Volatility and Managing Risk
Determining the right investment plan for you usually comes at the end of your financial planning process. After an extensive review of your current situation, assets, debt, income, and future goals, the final step is to select the correct mix of investments. This is your asset allocation...
Is It Time to Hire a Financial Advisor? How Do You Even Do That?
Is it time to hire a financial advisor? How do you even do that? For most people, there's usually a point where their financial life becomes complicated enough that they realize it's time to hire a professional. This could be at any stage of life; it’s more about the individual situation and how an advisor can help.
September 2022 Commentary: If the Fed is Having a Goldilocks Moment, is the Economy Baby Bear?
After the bear market rally in July was extended for the first few weeks of August, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell used the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium to clarify the Fed’s position on future rate increases. Powell was clear that there would be no “Fed Pivot” until improvements in the inflation rate are sustained.
Understanding Life Insurance
You’ve worked hard, built a career, bought your dream home, and started a family. Your income covers your expenses (with some left), you’re maxing out your 401(k) contributions, saving for college, and even putting something aside in an investment portfolio. What’s missing from this picture? A comprehensive risk management plan.
How to Plan for Buying a Home
Owning your own home isn’t just about creating your dream of personal space – it’s one of your largest investments and can be the foundation of your financial security. But the process is complex, from saving for a down payment to getting a mortgage, is complex. We break down some of the ways you can get there more quickly, and help the purchase go more smoothly.
Should a Trust Be Part of Your Estate Plan?
Trusts used to be seen as an estate planning tool for only the very wealthy, who have complicated family situations to sort out, and high-value assets to protect. Times have changed. Modern lives are complicated, asset values are high, and good estate planning is for everyone.
The College Payment Puzzle for High-Earning Families
Those four years when your child is in college can be a rollercoaster ride, but the scariest part for high-earning parents can be figuring out how to pay for it. It can be tempting to put your own goals on hold while you shoulder the big-but-temporary new burden. A better strategy for paying for college while keeping your goals on track is to build the right short-list of colleges together with your child and maximize financial strategies. For families that make too much to qualify for financial aid, college funding likely won't come from just one source. It’s about putting together a plan that draws from several buckets.
Do You Need a Budget in Retirement?
You saved diligently, invested carefully, and now you have a sizeable nest egg that can most likely replace 80% of your pre-retirement income. Why should you go through the tiresome process of creating a budget? No matter how carefully you plan, many things are out of your control that can impact the income your plan can provide.
Managing Investments Means Managing Your Emotions
The market crashed over 10% in a single day in March 2020. While many investors sold out of their positions, those who held on and continued investing were rewarded, heavily. In just 354 days following the crash, the stock market as represented by the S&P 500 surged back into a bull market and doubled in value. Those who sold at the bottom missed a rare opportunity, which demonstrates the importance of managing emotions in uncertain times. Some believe that you can remove emotion from decision-making, but we’re human. Everyone has emotions. The important part is learning how to manage them while managing your money.
Planning for the Five Big Tax Challenges in Retirement
Creating a retirement paycheck that generates the income you need while keeping you in the lowest possible tax bracket isn't as easy as it seems. All the planning you did while working – like saving retirement funds in tax-deferred accounts and diversifying by purchasing a second home, can turn into tax bombs as you move through retirement.
Changing Jobs: What Happens to Your 401(k)?
There's a lot involved in moving to a new company, and normal for some to put some of the more tedious housekeeping items on the back burner. Besides all the job-related changes, you need to understand your new health insurance and set up your new 401(k) to continue your annual contribution.
Financial Fitness: Mid-Year 2022 Check-In
Summer will officially be here soon, but before kids get out of school and all the vacation planning you did begins to come to fruition, it can be a good idea to take stock of your financial picture and make updates where necessary. Below are a few things you should consider to keep your plan in shape. We've organized them by life stage, from having small kids to being closer to retirement. We've also included charitable giving, as that happens at every stage.
July 2022 Commentary: Will the Fed's Rate Resolve Lead to Recession?
After a barely positive May, June saw the bear market return across indices. We ended up with the worst first half performance since 1970. A mid-month surprise 75 basis point rate hike at the June FOMC meeting, followed by Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony to Congress in which he indicated aggressive rate increases at the July and September meetings, convinced markets that inflation is the priority for the Fed.
June 2022 Commentary: Lions, Tigers & Bears, Oh My
In reference to the Wizard of Oz, the Fed lion has found the courage to increase interest rates drastically, the inflation tiger is still ambushing the economy, and now the stock market is flirting with bears. The question for investors is: Are we still deep in the forest? Or is that the Emerald City on the horizon? To extend the metaphor – that wizard wasn’t much help, and the solution to the problem turned out to be a liquidation.