Investing

When it comes to natural disasters, it's important to be prepared for earthquakes and erosion alike. Even though one is immediate and dramatic while the other is slow and gradual, both require careful planning and protective measures.

The challenge facing investors today isn't whether artificial intelligence will transform the economy, but how to maintain portfolio balance as the market climbs to new all-time highs.

Recent tensions between the White House and Federal Reserve have brought the topic of Fed independence into focus. This is because there can be a natural friction between elected officials and the Fed, since they each have unique goals and incentives.

One of the biggest challenges for investors is balancing long-term goals with short-term market moves. This is just as true when financial markets are rallying as when they are struggling. New developments in the stock market, cryptocurrencies, commodities, and other asset classes naturally capture investor and media attention.

After months of negotiations, a new tax and spending bill was approved by Congress and signed into law by President Trump on July 4. This new budget is far-reaching, including making many parts of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent, raising state and local tax exemptions, extending the estate tax limits, and much more.

President Dwight Eisenhower is often quoted as saying “what is important is seldom urgent and what is urgent is seldom important.” This perfectly captures the challenges many investors face, since it often feels as if every breaking market and economic development is urgent and requires immediate action.

On the surface, the first half of 2025 has been challenging for investors. From a trade war and market correction to an escalating Middle East conflict and concerns over the growing national debt, investors may feel as if financial markets are stumbling from one problem to the next.

The conflict between Israel and Iran has captured global attention and created uncertainty in financial markets. Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and military targets began on June 13 and quickly led to retaliatory attacks. Then, on June 21, the U.S. launched strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities.

Moody's recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating marks an official end to the country’s top-tier debt status. Following Fitch's downgrade in 2023 and Standard & Poor's move in 2011, Moody's decision to lower the rating from Aaa to Aa1 underscores growing concerns about the nation's fiscal trajectory.

The recent trade announcement between the U.S. and China reverses many of the tariffs that rattled financial markets beginning in April. This agreement, which lasts 90 days, lowers U.S. tariff rates on China from 145% to 30%, and China’s rates on U.S. goods to 10%.

Just like in the stock market, greater uncertainty has led to swings in the bond market. These moves, driven by tariffs and a dispute between the White House and the Fed, have pushed interest rates and bond yields higher.

Federal Reserve policy has been a key driver of markets over the past few years. It’s not surprising to investors that changes in policy direction have resulted in market swings, most notably in 2022 when the Fed began to hike rates, and again last year when investors anticipated Fed rate cuts.