Economy & Markets

Trade tensions between the United States and China have escalated in recent weeks, with both countries implementing unprecedented tariff increases. For the moment, the U.S. has raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, while China has countered with 125% tariffs on American products.

Concerns that a trade war will lead to a recession have spread around the globe. The possibility of retaliatory tariffs is on investors’ minds, with China responding with counter-tariffs, increasing the odds of a worst-case trade war scenario.

On April 2, President Trump announced new tariffs on nearly all major trading partners. These tariffs are “reciprocal” in that they correspond to tariffs each country imposes on U.S. goods and are on top of previously announced duties. The average tariff rate across countries is 25%, with rates for some as high as 49%.

With the stock market back near correction territory due to tariff concerns, some investors may feel as if the market is stuck in a “Groundhog Day” loop. Fears of a trade war have kept markets choppy all year, with the technology sector leading the downturn.

Concerns over the economy have intensified, leading to a challenging investment environment. The S&P 500 briefly fell into correction territory recently (a decline of 10% or more), while the Nasdaq and major technology stocks have led the downturn.

The stock market has stumbled with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declining year-to-date.1 While tariffs have garnered the most attention, investors are also concerned about mixed economic signals including weak consumer confidence, hotter inflation, government worker layoffs, and more.

Trade headlines continue to weigh on markets as new tariffs go into effect. President Trump recently confirmed tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, dashing hopes of more extensions or last-minute deals.

February was a volatile month for stocks. Tech continued the selloff that started in late December, with the Magnificent 7 falling 8.1% in the month. Tariffs and inflation fueled worries about growth as the new Trump administration began implementing policy changes.

Recent market swings have highlighted a gap between how investors feel and how markets have performed. As the famous Warren Buffett quote suggests, it has often been wise to be "fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”

January marked a positive but volatile start to the year for investors amid market shifts and policy concerns. President Trump returned to the White House and signed dozens of executive orders, the Chinese artificial intelligence company DeepSeek shook the tech industry, and the Fed hit pause on rate cuts.

Interest rates are fluctuating as investors adjust their expectations around economic growth, Federal Reserve rate moves, and the Trump administration’s policies. The 10-year Treasury yield had risen as high as 4.8% in recent weeks before settling below 4.6%.

The stock market has struggled in recent weeks as concerns have grown around interest rates, market valuations, the direction of the economy, and more. Since the market peak on December 6 last year, the S&P 500 has pulled back 4.3% while the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed from 4.15% to 4.76%.