Economy & Markets

In November, markets experienced a brief period of volatility that affected many asset classes. While major indices have delivered strong year-to-date returns across stocks, bonds, and international investments, investors continue to worry about artificial intelligence-related stocks and the path of Fed rate cuts.

There's an old saying that criminals rob banks because that's where the money is. However, in today's financial system, money isn't just in banks anymore, but across different types of financial institutions.

The stock market continued its strong performance in October despite uncertainty from a government shutdown and renewed trade tensions with China early in the month. Many major indices reached new all-time highs after recovering from a brief period of volatility.

The market recently experienced its largest one-day decline since April, driven by escalating tensions between the U.S. and China over rare earth metals and tariff threats. While the brief selloff rattled some investors, markets quickly improved following softer language from the White House around trade.

Washington is back in the headlines as the federal government faces a shutdown if policymakers can't reach a new funding agreement. This adds to a year in which government policies around trade, taxes, immigration, and more have created uncertainty for the economy and markets.

As markets reach new highs and artificial intelligence stocks continue to rally, some investors are asking "are we in a bubble?" This is as much about investor psychology as it is about market conditions.

Investors often find themselves looking in the rearview mirror even when they know that what lies ahead is most important. Recent reports, which are naturally backward-looking, have some investors and policymakers concerned about the economy, leading some to wonder if there will be a recession.

The stock market climbed to new all-time highs in August, while bonds also contributed positively to portfolios. This occurred despite continued uncertainty around tariffs, Fed independence, and technology stocks.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent speech at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole conference, which has been covered extensively in the media, reinforced that an interest rate cut in September is likely.

For investors trying to understand the economy, recent reports have provided mixed signals, even leading President Trump to fire the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner. The latest jobs numbers showed weakness and negative revisions, but there are also signs that GDP growth rebounded in the second quarter.

The S&P 500 notched ten new all-time highs in July, fueled by strong corporate earnings, resilient economic data, and new trade deals ahead of the tariff deadline. This included six consecutive record closes in the second half of the month, all of which contributed to year-to-date gains of 7.8% for the S&P 500.

While investors always look to corporate earnings for clues about how businesses are performing, the current earnings season arguably carries greater importance due to tariffs.